・熱帯低気圧が台風5号に ・２５日火曜日は非常に強い勢力 ・先島諸島が暴風域に入る恐れ ・本州方面へは接近しない見込み
フィリピンの東海上にある熱帯低気圧が、２４時間以内に台風５号になる見込み。 ２１日金曜日午前0時現在、熱帯低気圧の中心気圧は１００６hPa、中心付近の最大風速は１５m/s、最大瞬間風速は２３m/sで、時速約１５km/hで北に進んでいる。 熱帯低気圧が予報円の中心を進んだ場合、２３日日曜日にフィリピンの東で強い勢力になり、その後、２５日火曜日には沖縄の南で非常に強い勢力に発達する。 ２５日火曜日２１時の暴風警戒域に沖縄の宮古島や石垣島などが入ってきた。来週後半は沖縄に接近する可能性があり、警報級の大雨、暴風、うねりを伴った高波による被害が出る恐れがある。 現在、フィリピンから種子島、屋久島付近までの海域では、水温が約３０度と高く、台風が発達するエネルギーである水蒸気が十分に供給される環境にある。このため台風は非常に強い勢力を維持、またはさらに発達して沖縄に接近するかもしれない。
ただ来週は太平洋高気圧の勢力が強まるため、台風が本州方面に接近する可能性は低い。 アメリカ海洋大気局の予想では、２６日水曜日に沖縄の先島諸島を通過してそのまま東シナ海を北上、中国大陸へ進む。
中期ヨーロッパ予報センターの予報では、２７日木曜日午前に台湾を直撃してその後、中国大陸へ進む見込みだ。
A tropical depression located over the eastern sea of the Philippines is expected to become Typhoon 5 within the next 24 hours.
As of 12:00 AM on Friday, the 21st, the central pressure of the tropical depression is 1006 hPa, with maximum sustained winds near the center at 15 m/s and maximum gusts at 23 m/s. It is moving north at a speed of about 15 km/h.
If the tropical depression follows the forecast track, it is projected to intensify into a strong typhoon on the eastern side of the Philippines on Sunday, the 23rd, and then further develop into a very strong typhoon south of Okinawa on Tuesday, the 25th.
On Tuesday 9:00 PM, the 25th, Areas including Miyakojima and Ishigaki in Okinawa are expected to enter the gale warning area. There is a possibility of approaching Okinawa in the latter half of next week, and there is a risk of significant damage from warning-level heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves with swells.
Currently, the sea surface temperatures in the area from the Philippines to the vicinity of Tanegashima and Yakushima are around 30 degrees Celsius, providing a highly conducive environment for the development of the typhoon, with sufficient supply of moisture, which is the energy source for its intensification. Therefore, the typhoon may maintain its very strong intensity or even further intensify as it approaches Okinawa.
The next week, the Pacific high-pressure system is expected to strengthen, reducing the likelihood of a typhoon approaching Honshu.
According to the forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the typhoon is projected to pass through the Sakishima Islands of Okinawa on Wednesday, the 26th, and then continue to move north into the East China Sea, heading towards mainland China.
According to the forecast from the Mid-term European Centre for Weather Forecasts, the typhoon is expected to make a direct hit on Taiwan on Thursday, the 27th, in the morning, and then proceed towards mainland China.
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